The ANC Northern Cape provincial chairperson has expressed confidence that the governing party will win next year’s general elections despite a new poll predicting losses nationally, in Gauteng and in KwaZulu-Natal.
ANC NORTHERN Cape provincial chairperson Dr Zamani Saul has expressed confidence that the governing party will win next year’s general elections despite a new poll predicting losses nationally, in Gauteng and in KwaZulu-Natal.
The Northern Cape premier claims the ANC’s fortunes will depend on the five million voters who chose to stay at home during the 2021 local government elections rather than vote for opposition parties.
Saul’s forecast comes as a new poll by the Brenthurst Foundation and SABI Strategy Group predicts that the ANC will win 41% of the national vote and fall below 40% in the country’s most populous provinces – Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
“There are two major factors bandied about for the view that the ANC will lose the 2024 election: First, the majority of recent opinion polls that suggest the inaugural defeat of the ANC in a post-democratic general election and, second, the dismal performance of the ANC during the 2021 local government elections,” Saul said.
He said polls have shortcomings as they are a tool and not a principle.
“I am but one of those people who remain deeply sceptical of polls, whether they are positive or negative, as some of the pollsters tend to write fiction stories,” he explained.
According to Saul, the predictions of the ANC’s poor performance in the 2021 local government elections are exaggerated and could be better understood by examining the performance of the three major opposition parties – the DA, EFF and IFP.
He admitted that the outcomes of the 2021 local municipal polls were a rude awakening that reduced to dust the myth of ANC invincibility. However, his analysis of the performance of the three major opposition parties makes it apparent that the five million voters did not change their support for the ANC but simply decided to stay away.
Saul said three factors would see the ANC remain in power next year – its supporters are not attracted to opposition parties, no opposition party demonstrates signs of extraordinary growth, and opposition politics are in complete disarray.
”The ANC’s opportunity to win the 2024 election is largely dependent on the five million ANC stay-away voters who indicatively made it clear during the 2021 local government election that they would not migrate their support to any other party,” he said.
Saul said the ANC’s outright majority in 2024 appears irreversible and that talks of coalitions were a mere fantasy.
The Brenthurst Foundation and SABI Strategy Group poll of 1,500 registered voters forecasts a 41% share of the national vote for the ANC, 23% for the DA while the mooted multi-party coalition could obtain 36%, and 17% for the EFF.
A similar survey a year ago put the ANC at 48% while the multi-party coalition stood at 34% and the DA and EFF with 24% and 16%, respectively.
The poll also stated that in a high turnout scenario the ANC could get 43% and 25% for the DA, while the multi-party coalition would remain at 36% and 16% for the EFF.
A low turnout scenario could lead to the ANC getting 45%, 27% for the DA and 38% for the multi-party coalition, and 15% for the EFF.
In Gauteng, the ANC and the multi-party coalition are forecast to each receive 37% of the vote, 24% for the DA and 18% for the EFF.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the poll suggests that the multi-party coalition will obtain 46% of the vote, 32% for the ANC and 27% for the IFP, 19% for the DA and 15% for the EFF.