South Africans should brace for prolonged, and perhaps even severe power cuts, from this week.
SOUTH Africans should brace for prolonged and even severe power cuts from this week as Eskom has warned of “some risks” ahead.
This follows a “very difficult week” during which Eskom shed and curtailed a combined more than 7,000MW for two consecutive nights during evening peak hours to protect the national grid from collapsing.
By Sunday, Stage 6 load shedding was reduced to Stage 4, a welcome reprieve and despite the the power utility on Friday saying that Stage 6 load shedding would be implemented continuously until further notice due to the breakdowns of a number of generation units.
Eskom’s head of generation, Thomas Conradie, said that the ongoing high levels of unplanned breakdowns had posed a serious risk of pushing load shedding to Stage 8.
“I must say that we were close to [Stage 8 load shedding] this week,” Conradie said at a briefing on Friday to provide an update on the implementation of the Energy Action Plan.
“It is finely balanced in terms of a number of factors, and therefore we need to manage it closely.”
Conradie said wet coal and poor weather conditions had contributed to Eskom implementing Stage 6 load shedding as heavy rains affected coal handling at the Lethabo power station.
“This has been a very difficult week for all of us due to some plants not being in action. We had problems getting coal because of rain and poor weather but we are maintaining all our power plants,” Conradie said.
“At this stage, we don’t foresee going to Stage 8 but we need to be responsible and ensure that those schedules are clear if the situation forces us.”
What will leave millions of electricity consumers uneasy though is that Conradie confirmed that Eskom was reviewing its load shedding framework to prepare for the prospect of higher stages of load shedding in future.
The current framework outlined in a National Energy Regulator of SA document – NRS048-9 – allows Eskom to shed up to 8,000MW and implement Stage 8 load shedding.
But with the proposed changes to the framework, the energy regulator is expected to release a revised document for public comment which could double the amount of power Eskom could shed.
“Increasing stages of load shedding is with the intention to ensure that we keep the demand and supply matched and keep the system stable and, therefore, it would be irresponsible not to do that preparation work,” Conradie said.
Eskom is expected to begin ramping up its maintenance programme after getting a breather on debt and interest payments as the government will take over R254 billion of its R423bn debt for three years from April 1.
Though ratings agencies have said that transferring a portion of Eskom’s debt to the government had been expected, they warned the electricity crisis was raising the risks of consistently weaker growth and revenues.
Moody’s vice-president and senior credit officer, Aurelien Mali, on Friday said they had included state-owned companies’ guaranteed debt in their estimates of consolidated government debt for several years.
“However, spending pressures to tackle pressing social issues and long-standing infrastructure bottlenecks will continue to rise,” Mali said.
The failing electricity sector and record levels of load shedding were likely to lead to lower growth this and next year than the government was forecasting, Mali said.
– BUSINESS REPORT
