Energy experts have warned that Eskom’s coal fleet Energy Availability Factor is hovering around 50%, which means only half of the available power is being generated by the power utility.
ENERGY experts have warned that Eskom’s coal fleet Energy Availability Factor (EAF) is hovering around 50%, which means only half of the available power is being generated by the power utility.
Experts have said the low EAF could see higher stages of load shedding this winter. Eskom announced on Monday that due to the delay in returning nine generating units to service, the stages of load shedding will be escalated this week.
Lungile Mashele, an energy economist, said recently that the EAF had been oscillating at 50% for some time now.
“EAF is a tricky measure because it looks at a point in time, there might be improvements at some point during the month, week or day that are generally unaccounted for or negligible when computing the monthly EAF.”
Mashele added that a higher EAF means lower stages of load shedding. “The 2019 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) assumed EAF would be above 70% and that informed the investment decisions at the time. The current EAF explains the severe load shedding we’ve been experiencing and will definitely experience in winter.”
Energy expert Professor Wikus van Niekerk said if the availability is 50% it means half of the possible power available can be generated.
“If we have 30GW in the country, then only half, 15GW, can be generated. In the ‘old days’, coal fleet availability would have been 80%. With availability below 60% we will have load shedding.
“Below 50% it will be level 6 or higher. In the winter it could get even worse.”
David Lipschitz, an energy resilience expert and author of the book “The Last Blackout”, said we should expect between Stage 4 and Stage 10 load shedding over the winter.
Eskom said on Monday that breakdowns are currently at 17,920MW of generating capacity while the generating capacity out of service for planned maintenance is 3,412MW.
“The delays in returning a unit to service at Arnot, Camden, Duvha, Kendal, Kriel, Lethabo, Matimba, Matla and Tutuka power stations contributed to the current capacity constraints. The team is working around the clock to ensure that generating units are returned to service as soon as possible,” the power utility said.
