Although international oil prices have softened substantially in the past week, South African motorists and commuters are still in for a very rough ride in April.
IN RECENT weeks there’s been a great deal of hype and paranoia surrounding the prospect of petrol prices rising to levels of up to R40 a litre.
And while this might still happen at some point in the future, given that Russia and Ukraine remain at war, the good news is that R40 petrol doesn’t seem to be on the cards in the near future.
After reaching a 14-year high of $140 a barrel earlier in March, the international price of Brent Crude oil had softened to around $106 by mid-month. However, this is still somewhat higher than last month’s average of $97, which means that motorists and commuters are still facing substantial price hikes in April.
The other thing to consider is that the higher oil prices earlier in the month will still affect the monthly average used to calculate next month’s fuel price.
The latest mid-month data supplied by the Central Energy Fund, which is an average for the month so far, points to an increase of around R2.26 for petrol and R3.11 for diesel. However, the latest daily data is showing far smaller under-recoveries of R1.42 for petrol and R1.76 for diesel, and if these trends persist then April’s petrol price increase could certainly fall below the R2 mark, although diesel customers likely won’t be as lucky.
Once again, the situation between Russia and Ukraine remains volatile and another oil price spike is certainly not impossible.
However, even if the more favourable conditions persist and the April petrol price hike is limited to R1.80 (and this is one of the better-case scenarios), South Africans will still end up paying R22.68 for a litre of 95 Unleaded petrol at the coast and a whopping R23.40 inland.
South African fuel prices are already at all-time highs and April’s fuel price hikes – even if lower than expected – are still going to place an extreme burden on already-stretched motorists and commuters.
Unless the government finds a will and a way to reduce taxation on fuel, which currently amounts to R6.11 per litre, there is unlikely to be any relief in sight any time soon.
