Home South African ANC results show party is in trouble, say analysts

ANC results show party is in trouble, say analysts


The ANC’s decline in electoral support in the local government elections was a sign of more things to come in future, this was a warning issued by political analysts.

Picture: Oupa Mokoena/African News Agency(ANA)

Cape Town – The ANC’s decline in electoral support in the local government elections was a sign of more things to come in future.

This was a warning issued by political analysts after it emerged there were more than 62 hung municipalities, which would force the ANC to get into coalition talks with other parties in different municipalities.

The ANC is only in control of one metro, after it obtained an outright majority in Buffalo City.

But in eThekwini, Mangaung, Nelson Mandela Bay, Tshwane, Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni it has failed to reach 50%.

In the City of Cape Town the DA has retained that metro. The DA won that metro in 2006 when it formed a coalition after pushing out the ANC.

Professor Dirk Kotze of Unisa said on Thursday said the electoral loss of the ANC could spell out what is to come in future.

Professor Bheki Mngomezulu of the University of the Western Cape said that coalitions are on the cards and this election could make or break the ANC as it has to start to look at what went wrong.

The analysts said the hung municipalities show there was a decline in ANC support.

Kotze said the election shows that this was not about the growth of other parties, but the decline of the ANC.

“It’s obvious this is a product of the decline of the ANC. It’s not because of other parties getting bigger. I see this as a period of transition, where we first saw in Cape Town in 2006 where there was a coalition and then the majority,” said Kotze.

He added the issue of coalitions showed that more parties would be represented in local municipalities.

“The message from this election is that the ANC became narrowly focused. They were not as representative as in the past,” he said.

He said coalitions can sometimes work and sometimes there could be a stalemate as has happened in the past.

He said this election showed that voters cast their net wide as there were parties that got the votes.

“What is interesting about this election is that the choices by voters are not about historical association, but practical experiences. That is what we are seeing in local government,” said Kotze.

Mngomezulu said this election had shown the issue of coalitions was now going to dominate the political landscape.

He said there had been a mushrooming of political parties and independent candidates ahead of this election, and this would be a trend in the future.

“In all likelihood, come 2024, there will be far more than this. Going forward, these coalitions will dominate our political landscape,” said Mngomezulu.

He said the ANC would need to do an introspection and look at where it made mistakes and correct them.

“If the ANC is honest enough, it does self-introspection it will correct those mistakes, and we may see it coming back. But if the factionalism continues, what we see today we may see far worse,” said Mngomezulu.

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Political Bureau

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