Could permanent load shedding prove to be beneficial for South Africa and its citizens in the fight against its ongoing energy crisis? Energy experts are divided.
COULD permanent load shedding prove to be beneficial for South Africa and its citizens in the fight against its ongoing energy crisis?
Energy experts are divided, with some saying that permanent load shedding could possibly help.
Last weekend Eskom board chair Mpho Makwana and Eskom management indicated that they were considering permanent load shedding of between Stages 2 and 3 over the next two years in a bid to accommodate the necessary maintenance, while giving South Africans a better sense of predictability and consistency.
However, the power utility has seemingly back-pedalled this week, saying that permanent load shedding was a measure that was considered but ultimately rejected.
EFFECTIVE MAINTENANCE PROGRAMME
While Eskom may have ruled out permanent load shedding for now, energy expert Lungile Mashele said that should the power utility decide to go ahead, it could prove to be beneficial.
“It’s a good idea,” said Mashele. “It’s the only way to run an effective maintenance programme without burning diesel. The use of diesel to run maintenance is not the correct way of doing things. Permanent load shedding will give Eskom much-needed capacity to run an effective maintenance programme.”
Mashele says having load shedding at a permanent Stage 2 or 3 was the best option.
“Currently Eskom has planned maintenance of 6GW, they do not have the required capacity or diesel to increase this planned maintenance to let’s say 12GW as per their plans.”
She says permanent load shedding will also give South Africans some much-needed predictability.
“This permanent load shedding is not an indicator that things are worse but rather to offer some predictability and much-needed space to run an effective maintenance programme.”
She said businesses would also benefit from having predictability.
“It means for the next two years we should plan our lives around load shedding as we have been doing since 2007. But this time, with a promise of a solution. Businesses should expect interruptions to productivity, increased input costs with the use of diesel, decreased output, reduced travel, and food storage issues.
“This method coupled with a ‘maintenance festival’ that was used in 2015 and that stopped load shedding for two years after could prove helpful. It’s the only way to ensure a well-run programme without the use of diesel.”
IMPOSSIBLE
Professor Hartmut Winkler, from the Department of Physics at the University of Johannesburg, says permanent load shedding would simply be impossible for Eskom to implement.
“You cannot decide long in advance what load shedding stage you are going to have,” said Winkler.
“Load shedding is an immediate reaction to a situation (often unexpected) where the amount of electricity needed at any particular point in time becomes bigger than the electricity available (if you don’t take the drastic measure to reduce demand by implementing load shedding, and you allow the demand to exceed the supply, the grid collapses, and you are left with days of no power).
“What I presume Eskom intended to say is that the public should be ready for at least another year in which the average load shedding will be at levels 2 or 3. I can however almost guarantee you that we are going to see quite a few instances where they will be forced to raise the level of load shedding to [Stage] 6 or higher. Then, just as one typically has both good and bad luck streaks, there may be some occasions where the power plants are holding, and they would then be able to suspend load shedding, even if it is not for very long.”
“What Eskom is presumably also trying to pre-empt is a situation where the public is all too regularly shocked by the news that Eskom has been forced to start load shedding again. If the public knows that Stages 2 or 3 are the norm, there will be less pressure on Eskom to make ultimately counter-productive rush repair jobs that do not last, all because the public insists that they want their power back immediately.”
TOUGH TIMES AHEAD
Regardless of what Eskom decides to do next, Winkler said South Africans should prepare themselves for some tough times ahead.
“The situation is very bad, and, as Eskom has been honest enough to admit, we should not expect substantial improvements in the next two years. There are no quick fixes, and anybody who claims that they will be able to sort out Eskom and stop load shedding in six to 12 months (or 12 to 18 months) should simply not be taken seriously.
“I expect that we will see a further decline in electricity availability, with only partial improvement in the second half of next year.
“The condition for this gradual improvement in July to December 2024 is that there are no more major disasters that shut down large coal units, and that the life extension of Koeberg nuclear plant, the repairs of the three Kusile and one Medupi units and the completion of the final Kusile unit are not further delayed (all of these are a big ask).
“What should also help boost a recovery in late 2024 is that there are a large bunch of solar projects (and a couple of wind farms) that will become ready for operation around then. Load shedding would then not be over by the end of next year, but at least the frequency thereof should then decline.”
SOLAR TECHNOLOGY
He says those who are able to afford solar technology need to start investing in it as the energy crisis is set to be with us for a long time.
“A big move towards solar rooftop generation has already started, and this is set to grow dramatically. Those able to go this route will be in the best position to navigate this crisis.
“There is no quick fix to load shedding, and that we are therefore set for several years of frequent power cuts, even if these are not regular as some understood the announcement to imply.”
A DECADE MORE OF POWER CUTS
Des Muller, the director for Nu-Energy Developments said South Africans should expect at least a decade more of load shedding.
“Our load shedding will only last 10 to 12 years if our government takes effective steps to remedy it now.
“In 2004, I predicted that load shedding will start in 2008 and would take 20 years to rectify. Although the industry laughed at me, I was three months out. So let’s see how long it takes to fix our base load foundation.”.
Meanwhile, Eskom has admitted that its recovery plan would take time and that it would take at least two years for the power utility to get its energy availability factor (EAF) up to 70%.
“The recovery of generation performance will not happen within a short space of time, the execution of the recovery plan requires that power stations are given space and headroom to execute the recovery plan this requires either adding additional capacity to create space to do proper maintenance without firefighting or create some predictability by implementing a permanent Stage 2 or 3 for the next two years in order to give sufficient space for maintenance while giving the country a level of predictability or consistency to plan the livelihoods better,” said Eskom spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha.
“Shuttling from one stage to another within a short space of time is not good for the business community.”
