Home News NC could have 70 000 positive cases by November, say experts

NC could have 70 000 positive cases by November, say experts

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This is according to a trajectory by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), a division of the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS).

BY NOVEMBER 1, the Northern Cape could have between 70 000 and 80 000 positive cases of Covid-19 with as many as 1 000 deaths.

This is according to a trajectory by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), a division of the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS).

Modelling by a consortium of some of the country’s foremost experts shows between 40 000 and 45 000 South Africans could die from Covid-19 by November, with current numbers of ICU beds expected to be overwhelmed almost immediately.

The release of the projections was made during a technical briefing with Health Minister Zweli Mkhize and members of several teams producing modelling for the government on Tuesday night.

The projections show that nationally, between June and November, 40 000 to 45 000 people could die from Covid-19, with nearly 500 deaths by the end of May.

The projections, which the experts stressed were subject to change as more data became available, show that in the Northern Cape the number of active cases is expected to peak in October this year.

According to an optimist scenario for the Province, there could be around 75 000 cumulative detected cases by November 1, while a pessimistic scenario puts this figure at more than 80 000. The optimistic scenario for the total number of deaths is 1 027 by November 1, while according to the pessimistic scenario, this could be as high as 1 100. 

The number of deaths (according to the optimistic scenario) is expected to rise from two by June 1 to seven by July 1. By August 1, this number would have increased to 526 and by September 1, a projected 934 people in the Province would have died. At the predicted peak by November, it is estimated that the virus would have claimed a total of 1 027 people in the Province.

The total number of patients requiring hospitalisation in the Province by November 1 is projected to be between 8 974 (optimistic scenario) to 9 627 (pessimistic scenario). Those requiring ICU admission is projected to be a total of between 3 666 (optimistic) and 3 926 (pessimistic).

The peak period for hospital beds in use is August, when it is estimated that between 2 000 and 2 500 hospital beds will be in use, while between 700 and 971 ICU beds will be in use in August.

The projections for hospital beds in use is five (optimistic scenario) and 35 (pessimistic scenario) by June 1; 56 and 585 by July 1; 722 and 2 504 by August 1; 2 060 and 828 by September 1; 853 and 119 by October 1; and 139 and 14 by November 1.

The projection for ICU beds in use is expected to be 1.37 and 9.78 by June 1; 13 and 151 by July 1; 183 and 971 by August 1; 705 and 559 by September 1; 140 and 396 in October; and 83 and 27 in November.

The ICU bed threshold in the Northern Cape is shown at around 50, while the general bed threshold in the Province is around 1 200.